Canada at 40 Million: Where Are We Headed?

Article author: 
Madeline Weld, Ph.D., President, Population Institute Canada
Article publisher: 
Population Institute Canada
Article date: 
15 July 2023
Article category: 
National News
High
Article Body: 

Canada Achieves a Milestone: Its Annual Growth Rate Now Exceeds Africa’s

Congratulations, Canada! On June 16, right on time for Canada Day, you reached a population of 40 million. This is no mean feat for a country whose total fertility rate is 1.4 children per woman and has been below the replacement level of 2.1 since 1971, when its population was under 22 million, all while the maternal age at delivery has been rising. One could have expected a population of well under 30 million.

Canada’s population growth rate leaves the rest of the G7 countries in the dust and now even tops that of most developing countries. The total fertility rates of many middle- and low-income countries have fallen or are rapidly falling toward the replacement level and their annual growth rates with it; the latter are still driven mainly by the demographic momentum of a high percentage of young people.

Canada, however, is going in the opposite direction. In 2022, over one million people – permanent and non-permanent residents – entered Canada and immigration accounted for 95.9% of Canada’s population growth that year. This put it in the top twenty for annual growth rate; nearly all of the countries that “outperformed” it are in Africa. In fact, Canada’s growth rate in 2022 of 2.7% annually tops the average African growth rate of 2.4%. The global average is 0.88%.

As one commentator on PIC’s tweet about the 40 million milestone said, “Yay! Third World status is within our reach!”

Canada’s Total Fertility Rate Plummets as Its Population Surges

Aside from a fertility bump with a peak of about one child per woman during the post-war baby boom of the mid-1940s to mid-1960s, Canada’s total fertility rate has been falling steadily since 1860 from almost six children per woman to about 1.4 today. But it is growing at third world rates because of its policy of high immigration. The graphs below show the opposing directions of Canada’s fertility rate and population growth...

A Motto to Promote Political Objectives: “We Are a Land of Immigrants”

While government and media frequently inform Canadians that theirs is a land of immigrants, the reality is that for most of its history, the biggest contributor to Canada’s population growth was natural increase. This only began to change in 1990, when the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney initiated a policy of bringing in a quarter of a million people each year, regardless of economic conditions...

Interestingly, the message that “Canada is a land of immigrants” became ubiquitous only after the government launched its policy of mass immigration...

Canada’s Incoherent Policies in a Nutshell

The Trudeau government is simultaneously pursuing two contradictory goals. They can be summarized as follows:

Goal 1: Reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions...

Goal 2: Growing the population to keep the economy growing. Canada is using population growth as a tool in its misguided goal of growing the overall size of the economy...

But a GDP that grows simply because the population is growing does not increase per capita wealth nor general well-being...

A Postnational Country Has No Need for Citizens

Driving Canada’s population growth through immigration produces clear winners and losers. The losers are most working Canadians, including the ones who immigrated here for a better life, many of whom are struggling despite high levels of education. The environment, farmland, and biodiversity are losers too. The winners are speculators, developers, mortgage providers and some businesses, as well as politicians...

... at this point being open to all possibilities in trying to connect the dots seems reasonable. Justin Trudeau told The New York Times in 2015 that Canada was the first “postnational state” with no “core identity” or “mainstream.” Is that in fact what he is aspiring to create? Trudeau, many members of his cabinet, and both founders of the Century Initiative are tied to the World Economic Forum, which promotes globalization in the economic and governance spheres...

 

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