CA GOP’s Problem: Not Hispanics, But Whites and, Of Course, Idiot Leadership
Originally published July 31, 2012.
The conventional wisdom is that California is now out of reach for the GOP—or, more accurately, what VDARE.com calls GAP, a Generic American Party—because of the post-1965 influx of Hispanics.
But the conventional wisdom is wrong. While Hispanic voters are an increasing in number, their presence is not nearly as great as widely assumed. The Hispanic share of the California electorate is still fairly modest: 22% in 2010. The white electorate is nearly three times larger (61 %.) For comparison, whites account for merely 63% of the Texas electorate and 65% in Alabama. But both are GOP strongholds.
Of course, from 1992 to 2010, Republicans have lost 15 of the 18 Senatorial, gubernatorial and Presidential races in California. This dismal record is regularly attributed to Governor Pete Wilson’s endorsing Proposition 187 in 1994, which allegedly awoke the sleeping Hispanic giant.
But this theory ignores several inconvenient facts:
- GOP candidates in California lost three statewide elections badly in 1992—two years before Proposition 187.
- Endorsing Proposition 187 helped Wilson to come from 20 points behind during a recession to win by 15 points.
The LA Times reported dutifully that Wilson lost some Latino votes but was forced to add that “Latinos voted in such small numbers that he was not hurt by the erosion.”...
In short, California’s Blue state status is due to weak GOP performance among whites, not anything going on with minorities. Yet the Republican Establishment appears to have been persuaded to give up on the state...
The strength of the defeatist conventional wisdom about California is particularly amazing because in the last eighteen years not one, but three, citizen initiatives have passed in the teeth of overwhelming liberal and establishment opposition, all clearly illustrating the continuing power of California’s whites—and of National Question issues:
- 1994: Proposition 187 barring welfare use by illegals carried 59-41, with 65% of the white vote.
- 1996: Ward Connerly’s Proposition 209, the initiative that officially banned racial preferences in California, carried 55-45, with 62% of the white vote.
- 1998: Ron Unz’s Proposition 227, the anti-Bilingual Ed Initiative that mandated “English For the Children” carried 61-39%, with 67% of the white vote.
But California’s Republican Party was too cowardly to take up these issues. It has allowed its opponents to achieve complete moral hegemony. It might as well declare bankruptcy now.
Unfortunately, the national GOP may not be too far behind.
Related article
Kevin Drum On The Myth Of Prop 187: This Is The Conventional Wisdom, And I’ve Never Questioned It, VDare, June 6, 2016.
Drum continues:
This is the conventional wisdom, and I’ve never questioned it... For some reason, though, I got curious about it today. Here’s what California has looked like in presidential elections over the past 35 years:
Unless I made a mistake somewhere, Prop 187 had precisely zero effect. As the non-white population of California rose, the Democratic share of the presidential vote rose in almost perfect tandem. After 1994, it continued growing at the same rate as ever.
This is just the presidential vote, and maybe things are different in other contests. But I’d be interested to see someone take a more detailed look at this... Non-whites don’t like Republicans, and will go on not liking them.
CAIRCO Note