More Census Bureau Propaganda

Here we go again. More politicised demographic predictions from the Census Bureau.  These projections are then hyped by the Brookings Institute, and then by a wide array of mainstream media, from the New York Times to the New Republic. The take home message? White people need to give up the fight to govern themselves because Whites are in demographic decline and—depending on which news source you read—will be a minority by the year 2044 or 2050. As a result, there is no point for Whites in opposing immigration because the immigration we already have will soon make Whites a minority.

Our elites craft this take home message of despair to persuade White people to give up the fight against non-White immigration...

One author in particular leads this charge. He is William H. Frey, a demographer and a senior fellow at the Metropolitan Policy Program of Haim Saban‘s Brookings Institute. He uses the newly published “data” from the Census Bureau to beckon White people into an open coffin, lay down of our own volition and watch quietly as our elites shut the lid tight.

Acknowledging the inspiration and support of his wife, Olivia Golden, Frey triumphantly declares the end of the White era in his book, Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America (Brookings Institution Press, 2014). He gleefully pronounces that aged White males will be banished from the halls of power...

Just a [few of the] titles of some of the news commentary give you an idea of how pleased the liberal media is with Frey’s proclamation.

There are problems, however, with the Census Bureau’s projections, and with the work of William Frey in particular: The data he uses are not accurate. Further there is good reason to believe that William H. Frey and the demographers at the Census Bureau know this.

Let’s start with a look at the main source—indeed the only key source—that Frey uses in his latest propaganda volley.  As Frey mentions above, he bases his predictions on publications from the United States Census Bureau. The latest is found in the “U. S. Population Projections: 2014–2060.” The projections include a summary of its findings, and then crucially, the “Methodology, Assumptions, and Inputs for the 2014 National Projections.”...

This base population is drawn from the 2010 census. I merely note that this base population for the 2010 census includes a formula that inflates minority numbers without a corresponding inflation of the White population, even in areas of White poverty.  This has long been a method for assigning greater congressional representation to non-White areas and is quite controversial, not to say inaccurate.

Let’s also skip over the “base” population figure from 2013 which is extrapolated from the 2010 census estimate and then projected forward to 2013. This figure does not reflect the significant decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of non-White populations during the three year period from 2010 to 2013. Thus the “base” of the 2014 National Projections estimate is already faulty...

What would you think of a demographer in the year 1814 who averaged out the TFR of White people in the United States from 1790 to 1811, and then applied that decades old TFR till 1860?...

But that is precisely what the Census Bureau has done here. The 2014 report states that the “Final birth registration data from NCHS for the years 1990 to 2011 were used as the numerators in our fertility rates.”...

So this means that the TFR used is an average of the years 1990 to 2011 and that these are applied to the population “base” projected for 2013. The report then extrapolates these figures to 2060.

Of course this is absurd. While the TFRs of Whites during this period have been stable, only gently drifting downward, the TFRs of Blacks and Hispanics have been far higher, and while also drifting down, have accelerated downward in recent years—indeed collapsed—as shown by my previous article in the Occidental Observer. This collapse in non-White TFR is based on the reliable live birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics...

Naturally the TFRs constructed by this average from an earlier and higher level of births for non-Whites would then lead to vastly inflated figures for non-Whites when projected to the year 2060...

From this report we see projected that Hispanics will have almost doubled their population, even though their birthrate is currently at only replacement level, and falling quickly.  Blacks will have increased from almost 40 million to 54 million, again with TFR well below replacement level. Even odder, American Indian/Alaskan Natives will increase from 2.3 million to 2.6 million, with a TFR of only 1.35!...

The message they are trying to convey is: Look, the horse is out of the barn. The immigration that has already occurred is more than enough to make Whites a minority. Therefore, opposing immigration because it will make Whites a minority is an exercise in futility...

One thing is certain: White displacement is nowhere near a foregone conclusion, or even, if present trends continue, very likely. Of course, the reality is that the same people who so pleased with a White minority future are all in favor of continuing high levels of immigration...

... the propaganda is false. We will not lose national sovereignty from birth rates—not with present trends. Changing immigration policy is still the fight that is ours to win.

CAIRCO Notes

Fey's original report was published as:

New Projections Point to a Majority Minority Nation in 2044 - Whites to be a minority by 2044, by  William H. Frey, Brookings Institution, December 12, 2014.

As Terrence Hill points out in his article, above, the liberal media are all too eager to report the purported demise of Whites in America. None have taken the time and effort to investigate the fundamental flaw in the demographic projections. It might be surmised that none were numerate (numerically literate) enough to do so.

As Hill lucidly points out, the driving factor in demographic change is mass immigration, not fertility (children per woman). Mass immigration - both legal and illegal - are decidedly within our nation's scope, power, and responsibility to control. 

As an exercise, the reader is encouraged to reread Hill's article, substituting "Americans" for "whites". Doing so will help reveal the true agenda of demographic conquest, which is the agenda of supplanting the predominant culture, values, and democratic principles of America.