Population Driven to Double by Mass Immigration
An Analysis of US Population - Immigration Projections
by Fred Elbel
Rev 1.3 April 28, 2014
This report presents an analysis of US population projections and the impact of mass immigration into the US to the year 2100. This report references the corresponding spreadsheet "US Population - Immigration Projections to 2100", prepared by the author.1 This report references data from the US Census Bureau and other sources. It should be noted that these sources do not differentiate between legal and illegal immigration. Since this analysis relies on that data, an explicit distinction between legal and illegal immigration is not made.
Summary
Native-born population (not including immigrants and their offspring) would have peaked due to population momentum in the year 2020 and then would have gradually declined. It is therefore reasonable to say that mass immigration is driving US population to double within the lifetimes of children born today.
This is not to say that mass immigration is the sole cause of US population growth. However, it is the predominant driving factor and will continue to be so.
Passage of the 2013 amnesty bill (S.744) will result in virtually unending US population growth. The amnesty will, for all practical purposes, dissolve United States borders and allow foreign job-seekers to drive up US population and commensurate environmental degradation. Population growth will subsequently decline only at the point when the US standard of living and environmental degradation are on par with conditions in population donor nations.
US Census Bureau projections
Table A of the associated spreadsheet contains US Census Bureau historical data.2 These data show US population of 205 million in the year 1970 increasing to 309 million in 2010. Population as of June 17, 2013 was 316 million according to the Census Bureau population clock.3
Table A reproduces, without alteration, US Census Bureau table NP2012-T13: "Table 13. Projections of the Population by Net International Migration Series for the United States: 2015 to 2060".4 The "middle series" (or average) projection shows US population increasing to 333 million in 2020, 380 million in 2040, 399 million in 2050, and 420 million in 2060.
Census Bureau low, constant, and high net international migration projections are included in this table. High migration projections show population to 442 million in 2060.
The Census Bureau no longer projects population past the year 2060, therefore projections to 2100 were performed by the author. While variance in long-term projections is greater than short-term projections, the long-term projections should be sufficient to compare population trends with zero, low, and high international migration.
Table B shows linear extrapolation of Table A from 2060 to 2100. While a linear regression could have been used to project population, a simple linear extrapolation extends the growth rate that the US Census Bureau projects from 2050 to 2060 to extend to the year 2100. Low and high international migration projections are included.
Table B shows US population increasing to 502 million in 2100 under the middle series scenario, while increasing to 549 million under the high migration scenario.
Social Security Administration projections
Table C shows Social Security Administration 1997 projections5, and is included for reference. These historical data vary slightly from Census Bureau historical data. Social Security population projections lag behind Census Bureau middle series and even low migration series data. For example, Social Security Administration data projects 368 million in 2060, which is 88% of the Census Bureau projection of 420 million.
United Nations Population Division population projections
Table D shows United Nations Population Division 2012 projections, which extend to the year 21006. UN historical data show 1970 US population at 155 million versus the Census Bureau's 205 million, but UN 2013 population is very close to Census Bureau population.
UN projections are lower than Census Bureau projections, with 2060 population projected to be 420 million and 332 million (middle series), respectively. UN high variant population in 2060 is 493 million, compared to Census Bureau high migration population of 442 million.
UN projections to the year 2100 are 327 million (standard projection) and 705 million high variant population7. These values compare to extrapolated Census Bureau 2100 middle series population of 502 million and 549 million with high migration (see Table B).
Thus, while UN standard projections are more conservative than extrapolations of Census Bureau projections (Table B), the 2100 UN high variant projection is significantly higher than the extrapolated Census Bureau high migration projection.
NumbersUSA population projections
NumbersUSA commissioned a demographic analysis to show the impact of mass immigration on US population numbers8. The analysis, completed by demographer Leon Bouvier, is summarized in Table E. These data and associated charts show US population growth and stabilization that would have resulted had Congress implemented net zero immigration as of 1970.
1970 serves as the baseline year for this analysis as it was during that decade (in 1972) that American women voluntarily reached replacement level fertility (2.1 children per woman). It was also near 1970 that the number of legal immigrants allowed into the country began to rise rapidly as a result of immigration law changes in 1965. Population momentum (where today's children grow up to have children of their own while their parents are still alive) would have driven native-born US population to increase for several decades, then slowly decline to a sustainable number. This is represented by the green component of both graphs.
The original data and graphs can be found on these pages by NumbersUSA: "Our Lost Future", and "Question: Where does the Census Bureau say we're heading by 2060?". This explanation describes in more detail the methodology and the importance of selecting 1970 as the baseline reference year. 8
As should be expected, NumbersUSA projections (with immigration) to 2060 in Table E track well with Census Bureau projections in Table A. The NumbersUSA 2060 projection of 459 million is slightly higher than the Census Bureau middle series value of 420 million.
NumbersUSA projections extend only to the year 2060. Therefore, extrapolations of these projections to the year 2100 was performed by the author. Table F contains a linear extrapolation of NumbersUSA data in Table E. While a linear regression could have been used to project population, a simple linear extrapolation extends the growth rate that the US Census Bureau projects from 2050 to 2060 to extend to the year 2100.
The extrapolated population growth in 2100 from Table F, including mass immigration, is 567 million, while extrapolated Census Bureau middle series population for the year 2100 is 502 million and the high migration projection is 549 million. Thus, extrapolated NumbersUSA data roughly correlates with extrapolated Census Bureau data.
Population projections and immigration impact
NumbersUSA data and charts show the detrimental impact of mass immigration on US population - that is, the demographic impact of large numbers of immigrants and their descendents - as mandated by ongoing Congressional and Administration policy.
The NumbersUSA baseline reflects a 1970 Census Bureau population of 205 million. The NumbersUSA projection (summarized in Table E) reveals US population increasing to 405 million in 2040 (2040 is the life expectancy of a person born in 1970). The population of 405 million consists of two components: native-born population (262 million), and immigration-driven population (143 million). The immigration-driven population component represents two-thirds of this population growth after the 1970 baseline.
Based on extrapolation of the NumbersUSA analysis from 2060 to 2100, the immigration-driven population component will reach 110% of zero net immigration population in the year 2070. Thus, mass immigration will be the cause of US population doubling between 1970 and 2070. By 2100, the immigration-driven population component of US population will reach 150% of 1970 population.
The life expectancy of a child born in 2013 is approximately 78.5 years9, so that individual would on average live until 2091. In 2090, mass immigration will have driven US population to increase by 137% from the 1970 baseline.
US population as of June 17, 2013 is 316 million. Factoring in mass immigration, based on extrapolation of Census Bureau high international migration projections, US population will double to 632 million between 2013 and approximately 2088. 2088 is the life expectancy of a person born in 2010; 2091 is the life expectancy of a person born in 2013.
It also should be noted that in the year 2090, the immigration component of US population growth will be slightly greater than the natural increase component. In other words, in the year 2090, the contribution of mass immigration will cause US population to increase at double the amount that would have occurred without mass immigration.
Native-born population (not including immigration) would have peaked due to population momentum in the year 2020 and then would have gradually declined. It is therefore reasonable to say that mass immigration is driving US population to double within the lifetimes of children born today.
This is not to say that mass immigration is the sole cause of US population growth. However, it is the predominant driving factor and will continue to be so.
Augmenting factors
The US Census Bureau projects population only to the year 2060. The Bureau also does not differentiate between legal and illegal immigration.10 While a fairly accurate estimate of legal immigration can be substantiated at approximately one million legal immigrants per year11, the number of illegal aliens who evade capture at our border and enter the United States is not as readily determined.
However, a number of independent studies indicate that the stale US government-provided illegal immigration numbers are markedly understated, and that mass immigration has had perhaps a double (or larger) impact than that indicated by the "official" statistics. Specifically, in contract to the stale US Government number of 11 million illegal aliens living in the United States, the number is more likely to be 20 million to 40 million.12
Therefore, given these estimates, the corresponding impact of mass immigration on US population growth would be commensurately larger.
Specifically, the immigration-driven population projections discussed above and included in the associated spreadsheet would be substantially higher. It would be much more likely that the Census Bureau high migration projection and the UN high variant projection would be the most realistic projections. In other words, mass immigration could be driving US population to more than double by the year 2100.
Catastrophic factors
As this analysis was being prepared during June, 2013, the 2013 Amnesty for Illegal Aliens bill (S.744) was being debated in the United States Senate. This amnesty bill, if passed, would have catastrophic consequences for US population numbers.
Two Congressional Budget Reports(13) reveal that the amnesty bill would increase US population by 10.4 million above current forecasts for 2023, and by 16 million in 2033.14
The increased inflow will result in up to 46 million new or legalized people in the United States in 20 years.14 Thus the bill would ensure the arrival of one new immigrant for every six Americans.
The reports predict the bill will increase the number of resident guest-workers by 1.6 million in 2023, and by 2.8 million in 2033.14
An analysis of the amnesty bill Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) shows that more than 30 million immigrants would be granted legal status within 10 years, and an additional 25 million would be granted nonimmigrant work visas. The total increase would therefore be 57 Million.15
Similarly, an analysis by NumbersUSA reveals that the amnesty bill will add 33 million people in first decade alone - the equivalent of adding the top 20 U.S. cities full of foreign workers in first decade.16
Clearly, passage of the 2013 amnesty bill (S.744) will result in virtually unending US population growth. The amnesty will, for all practical purposes, dissolve United States borders and allow foreign job-seekers to drive up US population and commensurate environmental degradation. Population growth will subsequently decline only at the point when the US standard of living and environmental degradation are on par with conditions in population donor nations.
References
1. Spreadsheet: "US Population - Immigration Projections to 2100", by Fred Elbel (June, 2013).
2. "US Census Bureau historical data Historical National Population Estimates: July 1, 1900 to July 1, 1999", Population Estimates Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, (Revised June 28, 2000).
Additional tables: "National Intercensal Estimates (2000-2010)", Population Estimates Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau.
3. US Census Bureau Population Clock.
4. US Census Bureau table NP2012-T13: "Table 13. Projections of the Population by Net International Migration Series for the United States: 2015 to 2060" (2010); see spreadsheet.
5. "Table i. -- Social Security July 1 Population and Dependency Ratios, by Broad Age Group, Calendar Years 1950-2080", Social Security Administration (1997).
6. "World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision", United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (June, 2013). File "POP/1-1: Total population (both sexes combined) by major area, region and country, annually for 1950-2100 No change, 2010-2100".
7. "Probabilistic Population Projections: Total Population, Based on the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects - United States", United Nations, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2010, revised 15 November 2012).
8. "Our Lost Future", NumbersUSA.
"Question: Where does the Census Bureau say we're heading by 2060?", NumbersUSA.
"Questions about these charts", NumbersUSA.
"These numbers come from the U.S. Bureau of the Census which counted the residents of the country in 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and a revised projection done by the Census in 2002. All other years are estimated by the Census Bureau based on what was learned in the previous Census, on targeted surveys done each year and on other projection devices."
9. "Table 104. Expectation of Life at Birth, 1960 to 2008, and Projections, 2010 to 2020", US Census Bureau, see spreadsheet.
As of 1970, total life expectancy was 70.8 years. So someone born in 1970 would live, on average, to 2040. As of 2010, total life expectancy is 78.3 years. So someone born in 2010 will live, on average, to 2088. Someone born in 2013 will live, on average, 2091.
10. Discussion between the author, Fred Elbel, and Jennifer with the Census Bureau Population Projections Department, June 17, 2013.
11. "U.S. Legal Permanent Residents: 2012", Annual Flow Report, Randall Monger and James Yankay, Department of homeland Security Office of Immigration Statistics (2012).
Legal permanent resident flow, 2012:
New arrivals: 484,072
Adjustments of status: 547,559
Total: 1,031,631.
12. “How many illegal aliens are in the U.S.?”, The Social Contract, Volume 17, Number 4 (Summer 2007).
This issue includes the following articles:
"Illegal Aliens: Counting the Uncountable", by James H. Walsh.
"The Challenge of Accurately Estimating the Population of Illegal Immigrants" by Nancy Bolton.
"How Many Illegal Aliens Are in the U.S.? - An Alternative Methodology for Discovering the Numbers", by Fred Elbel.
"Racing Backwards - The Fiscal Impact of Illegal Immigration in California, Revisited", by Philip J. Romero.
13. "CBO The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act", Congressional Budget Office (June, 2013).
"S. 744 Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act As reported by the Senate Committee on the Judiciary on May 28, 2013, including the amendments made in the star print of June 6, 2013", Congressional Budget Office (June 18, 2013).
14. "Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO", by Neil Munro,The Daily Caller (June 19, 2013)
"The CBO impact report says the bill would increase the U.S. population by 10.4 million above current forecasts for 2023, and by 16 million in 2033.
The current forecasts predict an inflow of roughly 11 million per decade, or 22 million by 2033.
The CBO report also assumes that eight million illegal immigrants of the estimated 11 million illegals will be allowed to stay, but does not include them in the population-growth forecast because they’re already living in the United States.
Together, the current 22 million inflow, plus the new 16 million and the eight million illegals, add up to 46 million new or legalized people for the nation in 20 years.
The nation’s current population is 314 million, so the bill would ensure the arrival of one new immigrant for every six Americans.
The report also predicts the bill will boost the number of resident guest-workers by 1.6 million in 2023, and by 2.8 million in 2033. Current law allows roughly 700,000 guest workers per year, including about 50,000 workers for the agriculture sector, and at least 400,000 university-trained workers. The estimated pool of guest-workers now in the country exceeds 1.5 million."
15. "Analysis Of Future Immigration Flow In Gang Of Eight Amnesty - Legal Status for 57 Million - More than 30 Million Immigrants Granted Legal Status In 10 Years; An Additional 25 Million Will Be Granted Nonimmigrant Work Visas, Bringing Total To 57 Million", by Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) (May 3, 2013).
16. "Gang of 8 amnesty bill adds 33 million people in first decade alone - Senate amnesty bill like adding Top 20 U.S. cities full of foreign workers in first decade -- 33 million", by Roy Beck, NumbersUSA (April 29, 2013).
"33 million lifetime work permits to be given to foreign citizens in the first decade after the bill passes.33 million is the same size as top 20 U.S. cities."
See the detailed analysis: "Estimated Future Permanent Legal Immigration Under S.744 - FY2015-2024", NumbersUSA (April 22, 2013).
17."America 2050: Here's How The Country Will Look Three Decades From Now", Business Insider (October 19, 2012). This article contains 26 charts and graphs that show America's dramatic population growth as a result of unconstrained mass immigration.
18. "Pew's Population Pyramid GIF Is The Fastest Way To Understand America's Changing Demographics", Business Insider (April 14, 2014). An animated population pyramid shows population by age group from 1950 to 2060.
19. "The US Population Explosion In One Cool GIF", Business Insider (April 7, 2014). An animated map shows United States population density from 1790 to 2010.
20. How A 1992 Moratorium Could Have Helped Preserve the Historic American Majority, Edwin S. Rubenstein, VDare, July 2, 2012.
21. World Fertility - The World's Most Important Graph, April 29, 2017.
22. The Most Overpopulated Nation, by Paul R.Ehrlich and Anne H. Ehrlich, Negative Population Growth, January 20, 2002 (see summary).